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Category Reference · Agriculture
Agricultural Commodity Intelligence
Variable Reference Guide
What every variable in the Agriculture report measures, where the data comes from, how often it updates, and what a move in each signal means for ingredient costs, supplier pricing, and planning assumptions.
Agricultural Commodity Intelligence
About This Report Category
Agricultural commodity prices are among the most consequential — and least watched — cost signals for planning teams outside of the food and beverage industry. That is changing. In a world where inflation has reset what "normal" input costs look like, the price of corn, wheat, soybeans, sugar, coffee, and cocoa no longer belongs only in the conversations of food manufacturers and restaurant chains.

For any business that sells to consumers, sources from suppliers with agricultural exposure, or operates in categories where food cost pressure drives discretionary spending shifts — these markets send early signals that conventional planning data misses entirely.

The SignalRadar Agricultural Commodity Intelligence report tracks six publicly available commodity markets across grains, oilseeds, and soft commodities. Together they give you early visibility into where food-driven cost pressure is building in supply chains, customer wallets, or both, well before it lands in the re-forecast conversation.
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How to read this guide
Each variable below is described in plain terms — no commodities experience required. For each one you'll find: what it measures, who publishes the data, how often it updates, and most importantly, what a meaningful move in that variable likely means for planning assumptions based on cost structures and other impacted metrics. The agriculture category includes both direct cost signals (for businesses buying ingredients) and indirect demand signals (when food price pressure affects customer spending behavior). Use this as a reference when reading your weekly Agriculture report and want to understand the "so what" behind a signal.
Corn
Also known as: Maize, CBOT Corn Futures, No. 2 Yellow Corn
Daily Yahoo Finance · CBOT / ICE
What it is
Corn futures represent the price of a bushel of No. 2 Yellow Corn for delivery at Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) specifications. Corn is the single largest field crop grown in the United States and one of the most widely used raw materials in the global food system. It is priced in dollars and cents per bushel. Despite being thought of as a vegetable, the vast majority of corn produced is field corn — not sweet corn — grown for industrial and animal feed use.
Who publishes it
Corn futures are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), part of the CME Group. Supply and demand fundamentals — which are the primary drivers of corn prices — are published monthly by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, widely considered the most market-moving agricultural data release in the world.
Where corn goes
Roughly 40% of the US corn crop goes to ethanol production (which links corn prices to energy markets). Another 35–40% goes to animal feed — making corn a primary cost driver for poultry, pork, and beef producers. The remainder goes to food processing: high-fructose corn syrup, corn starch, corn oil, masa flour, and dozens of food ingredient derivatives.
Update frequency
Futures prices update daily during trading hours. The monthly USDA WASDE report (typically released the second Tuesday of each month) is the single most important scheduled data event for corn and frequently causes significant price moves.
What a move means for planning
Corn is a first-order cost signal for food and beverage manufacturers, protein producers, and quick-service restaurant chains. When corn prices rise: feed costs for poultry, pork, and beef rise within one to two production cycles, putting pressure on protein ingredient costs months before they appear in supplier invoices. Food-grade corn derivatives (sweeteners, starches, oils) follow with a similar lag. The ethanol link also means that when oil prices spike, corn prices can be pulled higher simultaneously — compounding cost pressure across two categories at once. For non-food businesses, a sustained corn price increase signals that food cost inflation is building in the consumer economy, typically preceding pressure on household discretionary spending.
Wheat
Also known as: CBOT Soft Red Winter Wheat, SRW Wheat, Chicago Wheat Futures
Daily Yahoo Finance · CBOT / ICE
What it is
Wheat futures track the price of Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat, one of several wheat classes grown in the US and the primary futures contract benchmark. Wheat is the foundational grain behind flour — and flour is the foundational ingredient behind bread, pasta, crackers, baked goods, and a wide range of staple food products. It is priced in dollars and cents per bushel. Wheat is also a critical animal feed grain, though corn dominates that use in the US.
Who publishes it
Wheat futures are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). As with corn, the USDA WASDE report is the primary scheduled data driver for wheat prices. Global wheat markets are also significantly influenced by crop conditions in the major exporting nations: United States, Canada, Australia, Russia, Ukraine, and the European Union — making wheat unusually sensitive to geopolitical events.
The geopolitical dimension
Wheat is uniquely sensitive to supply disruptions from international conflict. Russia and Ukraine together account for roughly 25–30% of global wheat exports. The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine caused wheat prices to spike over 60% in weeks, one of the clearest examples of a geopolitical event transmitting directly into consumer food costs. Monitoring wheat provides early warning of this type of supply shock well before it reaches grocery shelves or restaurant menus.
Update frequency
Futures prices update daily. Monthly USDA WASDE report drives the most significant scheduled price moves. Crop progress reports (published weekly by USDA during the growing season) also influence prices.
What a move means for planning
Wheat is the most direct signal for flour and staple ingredient cost pressure. For food manufacturers, bakeries, foodservice distributors, and QSR chains with significant bread or baked goods exposure, a meaningful wheat price increase is a leading indicator of flour cost increases arriving within 60 to 120 days. For non-food businesses, a sustained wheat spike driven by geopolitical supply disruption signals broad food inflation that will compress consumer discretionary spending. The 2022 wheat spike was visible in futures markets months before it appeared in restaurant menu price increases or grocery price inflation headlines. That is precisely the kind of early signal this report is designed to surface.
Soybeans
Also known as: CBOT Soybean Futures, Soy Complex anchor contract
Daily Yahoo Finance · CBOT / ICE
What it is
Soybean futures track the price of a bushel of soybeans at CBOT specifications. Soybeans are unique among the grains in this report because they are primarily a processing crop — soybeans are rarely consumed directly but instead crushed into two separate outputs: soybean meal (a high-protein animal feed and aquaculture ingredient) and soybean oil (a cooking oil, food ingredient, and increasingly a biodiesel feedstock). The price of soybeans is therefore a composite signal reflecting demand from multiple industries simultaneously.
Who publishes it
Soybean futures are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). The US and Brazil together produce roughly 80% of the world's soybeans, making this market unusually sensitive to weather conditions and crop reports from both countries. The USDA WASDE report and Brazilian crop estimates from agencies such as CONAB are the key scheduled data events.
The soy complex
Soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil trade as a linked "complex" — their prices move in a defined relationship called the crush spread. When demand for either meal or oil rises, it pulls the whole complex higher. Currently, strong biodiesel demand has elevated soybean oil prices, while protein meal demand from global livestock expansion supports meal prices. Both effects lift the soybean price itself.
Update frequency
Futures prices update daily. Monthly USDA WASDE reports and Brazilian crop progress updates are the key scheduled events. South American harvest season (February–April) is a high-volatility period for the soy complex.
What a move means for planning
Soybeans are a cost signal that runs through vegetable oils, protein-based ingredients, animal feed, and biodiesel. For food companies using soybean oil as a frying or cooking oil (QSR, food manufacturing, foodservice), soybean price moves translate directly into oil cost assumptions. For businesses with poultry, pork, farmed fish, or other protein inputs, soybean meal price is a primary driver of the feed costs their protein suppliers are managing and will eventually pass through. The biodiesel link also means that energy policy shifts (renewable fuel mandates) can unexpectedly drive soybean prices higher, creating cross-category cost pressure that appears unrelated to traditional food market dynamics. A sustained soy price increase warrants reviewing any supply chain touching cooking oils, protein ingredients, or animal-derived inputs.
Sugar No. 11
Also known as: Raw Cane Sugar Futures, ICE Sugar, World Sugar Price
Daily Yahoo Finance · ICE
What it is
Sugar No. 11 is the global benchmark futures contract for raw cane sugar, traded on ICE Futures US. It is priced in cents per pound and represents the world price of sugar before it has been refined and before domestic price programs (like the US sugar support program) apply their adjustments. Raw cane sugar is the primary input for refined sugar — the sweetener used in beverages, confectionery, baked goods, condiments, and hundreds of processed food products.
Who publishes it
Sugar No. 11 futures are traded on ICE Futures US (Intercontinental Exchange). Brazil is the world's largest sugar producer and exporter, making Brazilian crop conditions, ethanol economics (Brazilian mills can switch between sugar and ethanol production depending on relative prices), and currency movements critical drivers of world sugar prices.
The ethanol connection
Brazilian sugar mills can flex their output between raw sugar and sugarcane ethanol depending on which is more profitable. When Brazilian ethanol prices rise (often tied to oil prices), mills divert cane to ethanol production — reducing global sugar supply and pushing prices up. This creates a link between energy markets and sugar prices that is easy to miss if you're watching only food market data.
Update frequency
Futures prices update daily. Sugar is subject to seasonal harvest patterns, with the main Brazilian center-south harvest running April through November. Weather events in Brazil, India (the second-largest producer), and Thailand can cause significant price dislocations on short notice.
What a move means for planning
Sugar is a direct cost signal for beverage companies, confectionery manufacturers, bakeries, QSR chains, and any CPG business with sweetener-intensive products. Because sugar supplier contracts are often reset annually or semi-annually, a sustained spike in world sugar prices can create a cliff event in input costs at the next contract renewal, the kind of surprise that forces mid-year budget revisions. For businesses with significant consumer exposure, rising sugar prices are also a leading indicator of menu price increases and reformulation pressure at the brands their customers buy, which can shift spending patterns. World sugar prices above historical norms for a sustained period are historically one of the more reliable precursors to confectionery and soft drink list price adjustments.
Coffee — Arabica
Also known as: "C" Coffee Contract, ICE Coffee Futures, Arabica Coffee Price
Daily Yahoo Finance · ICE
What it is
The Coffee "C" contract is the global benchmark for Arabica coffee beans — the higher-quality variety used in most specialty coffee, branded retail coffee products, and premium foodservice offerings. It is priced in cents per pound and traded on ICE Futures US. Arabica accounts for approximately 60% of global coffee production and is the primary coffee input for most North American consumer brands, cafes, and food service operators. (Robusta coffee, used primarily in espresso blends and instant coffee, trades on a separate London exchange.)
Who publishes it
Arabica coffee futures are traded on ICE Futures US. Brazil and Colombia are the dominant Arabica producers. Brazil alone accounts for roughly 35–40% of global coffee production, making Brazilian crop weather (particularly frost events in the coffee-growing regions of Minas Gerais and São Paulo — the single most market-moving supply factor) the most important supply indicator. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) publishes monthly supply, demand, and trade data.
Supply sensitivity
Coffee is a perennial crop with a two-year fruiting cycle — damage to trees from frost or drought reduces output not just in the current season but for the following year as well. This means supply disruptions compound over time rather than resolving within a single season, and price spikes can be sustained longer than typical annual crop disruptions. Coffee prices also alternate between high and low years based on Brazil's biennial production cycle.
Update frequency
Futures prices update daily. Weather events in Brazil (frost season: June–August) and Colombia (rainfall disruptions year-round) are the primary short-term price drivers outside of scheduled crop reports.
What a move means for planning
Coffee is a direct margin pressure signal for foodservice operators, beverage companies, CPG coffee brands, and any retail channel with significant coffee category exposure. Because roasted coffee has a lead time of roughly 90–180 days from green bean purchase to retail shelf, a coffee price spike today signals cost pressure arriving in finished goods pricing within one to two quarters. For foodservice and QSR operators, coffee is often a high-frequency, high-margin category — meaning that sustained green bean price increases put disproportionate pressure on the items that drive the most customer visits. For CPG businesses, coffee price spikes have historically preceded list price increases from major brands within 6–12 months, creating category dynamics that shift retailer planogram economics and promotional funding conversations.
Cocoa
Also known as: ICE Cocoa Futures, CSCE Cocoa, Cocoa Beans
Daily Yahoo Finance · ICE
What it is
Cocoa futures represent the price of raw cocoa beans — the agricultural input that is processed into cocoa liquor, cocoa butter, and cocoa powder, which are the building blocks of chocolate in all its forms. Cocoa is priced in dollars per metric ton and traded on ICE Futures US. It is one of the most geographically concentrated commodity markets in the world, with the majority of global supply originating from a small number of West African nations.
Who publishes it
Cocoa futures trade on ICE Futures US (with a parallel Robusta cocoa contract on ICE Futures Europe in London). Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana together supply approximately 60–65% of the world's cocoa beans, making political stability, regulatory conditions, and crop disease in those two countries the dominant supply-side factors. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) publishes quarterly supply and demand assessments.
Supply concentration risk
Cocoa's geographic concentration in West Africa creates a level of supply risk that is unusual even among agricultural commodities. Disease (particularly the fungal Black Pod and the viral Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus), political disruption, export regulation changes, and weather are all capable of removing meaningful supply from the market on short notice. In 2023 and 2024, a combination of El Niño weather disruption and disease caused one of the most severe cocoa supply shortfalls in decades, pushing prices to multi-decade highs and forcing major confectionery companies into significant margin compression or price increases.
Update frequency
Futures prices update daily. Cocoa is one of the most event-driven commodities in the agriculture category — crop condition updates from West Africa, currency moves in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, and export policy changes can all cause significant single-day price moves.
What a move means for planning
Cocoa is a direct cost signal for chocolate and confectionery manufacturers, bakeries with chocolate-containing products, and any retailer or foodservice operator with meaningful chocolate category exposure. Because cocoa is processed through several stages before reaching finished products — bean to butter/powder to chocolate couverture to finished goods — the time lag from a bean price spike to a finished goods price increase can be six months to over a year, depending on how far forward buyers are hedged. The 2023–2024 cocoa price crisis is an instructive case: companies that were monitoring cocoa futures had 12–18 months of warning before the cost increase fully appeared in their supply contracts. For CPG businesses and retailers, a sustained cocoa price increase at the levels seen in 2023–2024 typically leads to product reformulation (reduced chocolate content or substitution), size reduction, and eventually list price increases — all of which create category dynamics worth anticipating in the planning cycle.
Data Sources Reference
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)
Part of CME Group. Primary US exchange for grain futures including corn, wheat, and soybeans. The world's oldest and largest agricultural futures market.
cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture
ICE Futures US
Intercontinental Exchange, US operations. Primary exchange for sugar, coffee, and cocoa futures — the three "soft commodities" in this report.
theice.com
USDA — World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Published monthly by the US Department of Agriculture. The single most market-moving scheduled data release for corn, wheat, and soybean prices. Released the second Tuesday of each month.
usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde
International Coffee Organization (ICO)
Intergovernmental organization publishing monthly coffee production, trade, and price data across all producing nations.
ico.org
International Cocoa Organization (ICCO)
Intergovernmental body publishing quarterly assessments of global cocoa supply, demand, and stock-to-grind ratios — a key metric for understanding whether the market is in surplus or deficit.
icco.org
Yahoo Finance
Provides real-time and historical futures price data for all six agricultural contracts tracked in this report.
finance.yahoo.com
SignalRadar — Agricultural Commodity Intelligence · Variable Reference
All variables in this report draw on publicly available, free data updated daily. SignalRadar's platform processes historical and current values to identify early-shift signals relative to defined planning baselines. The platform's analysis of individual variables does not constitute investment advice. Variable definitions and planning implications are provided for educational and planning context only. Last updated: April 2026.